A dynamic theory of social failure in isolated communities

We introduce a statistical model for dynamic network analysis and we apply it to Sampson’s longitudinal collection of the sociometric relation trust, among 18 novices in a monastery (Sampson, 1968). A preliminary analysis offers a suggestive characterization of the social dynamics that led to the collapse of the congregation—purportedly over religious differences. Such a characterization provides the elements for a theory of failure in isolated communities that is rooted in latent aspects of the dynamics of social interaction. Namely, the existence of tight informal groups as a precondition, the progressive polarization of such groups as a signal of increasing differences, and the emergence of an interstitial group of individuals over time as a signal of imminent conflict.